Growing up in Miami amid a vibrant community of Cuban exiles fleeing the upheaval of Fidel Castro’s regime, Senator Marco Rubio developed a profound resistance to communism. As he prepares to take on the role of Secretary of State under President-elect Donald Trump, Rubio is set to leverage that same ideological passion to reshape U.S. foreign policy towards Latin America.

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As the first Latino to hold the Secretary of State position, Rubio is expected to concentrate on what many have termed Washington’s backyard.

With his role as the leading Republican on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and his long-standing membership in the Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio has effectively utilized his deep understanding and personal connections to shape U.S. policy in the region for years.

In the aftermath of the Cold War, Latin America gradually faded from the U.S. foreign policy spotlight, even as rival powers like Russia, Iran, and particularly China made significant advances. If confirmed, Rubio is anticipated to address this oversight.

However, Rubio’s firm stance on national security, endorsement of Trump’s mass deportation initiatives, and penchant for divisive rhetoric may alienate some U.S. allies in the region who are wary of aligning with the incoming President’s America First agenda.

“Historically, Latin American policy has been assigned to lower-ranking officials,” remarked Christopher Sabatini, a research fellow at Chatham House in London. “But Rubio’s instincts are finely tuned to the region. He will be actively involved, and governments will need to adopt a more collaborative approach in their dealings with the U.S. to fortify ties.”

Through a spokesperson, Rubio declined to elaborate on his foreign policy goals.

Nonetheless, his views on Latin America are well-known and starkly contrast with the Biden administration’s focus on multilateral dialogue and diplomatic engagement with U.S. critics.

Following Trump’s lead, Rubio’s primary concerns in the region are expected to center on Mexico, particularly regarding trade, drug trafficking, and immigration. Having previously supported bipartisan reforms that offered undocumented migrants a pathway to citizenship, Rubio has since adopted a more hardline position, advocating for stronger border security and mass deportations during Trump’s first term.

Rubio has largely refrained from commenting on newly elected Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, although he was a vocal opponent of her predecessor, Andres Manuel López Obrador, who notably opted out of the U.S.-organized Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles to meet with leftist leaders in Cuba.

Rubio accused López Obrador of yielding to drug cartels and acting as an “apologist for tyranny” in nations like Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, to which the Mexican President retorted by labeling Rubio a “racist.”

Despite this diplomatic slight, López Obrador was warmly received by President Joe Biden at the White House just three weeks later, where he was described as a “friend” and “partner.”

“That kind of welcome will likely be a thing of the past under Rubio,” Sabatini noted. “He will closely monitor who aligns with his policy interests.”

Now at 53, Rubio has been a trusted advisor to Trump on Latin American matters, actively pushing his stringent agenda. He has been a vocal critic of Russian and Chinese influence in the region and is expected to implement consequences for countries that align with America’s geopolitical rivals or fail to support Israel.

When Trump canceled his inaugural visit to Latin America in 2018, Rubio stepped in, connecting with leaders from countries such as Argentina and Haiti during the Summit of the Americas in Peru.

“No one in the U.S. Senate has his level of familiarity and expertise regarding Latin America,” asserted Carlos Trujillo, a close ally of Rubio and former U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States. “He has developed personal relationships with numerous officials over decades and has vetted nearly every U.S. ambassador assigned to the region, which is a considerable advantage.”

Among those eager to work with Rubio is Argentina’s President Javier Milei, whose bold personality and evolution from a television figure to a far-right politician bear similarities to Trump.

Another supporter is El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, who has garnered Rubio’s praise for his tough measures against gang violence that had previously compelled millions of Salvadoran migrants to journey to the U.S.

Rubio has not hesitated to utilize his influence to confront leftist leaders he views as threats to U.S. national security interests. Even moderate democratically elected officials have faced his scrutiny. Earlier this year, he criticized Chilean President Gabriel Boric, known for his stance on Israel’s actions in Gaza, for allegedly offering a haven for Hezbollah financiers, labeling him “one of the leading anti-Israel voices in Latin America.”

In 2023, he condemned Colombian President Gustavo Petro, a former member of the M-19 guerrilla group, as a “dangerous” choice for a country that has long been a crucial U.S. ally in the fight against drugs.

However, it is in Venezuela where Rubio has made his most substantial impact.

Shortly after Trump took office in January 2017, Rubio facilitated a White House visit for the wife of prominent Venezuelan dissident Leopoldo Lopez. This meeting, marked by a photo featuring a smiling Trump and Rubio alongside the imprisoned activist’s wife, thrust Venezuela into the spotlight of U.S. foreign policy, representing a shift from previous administrations’ more detached approach to the nation’s challenges.

Over the next two years, Trump imposed stringent oil sanctions on Venezuela, accused numerous officials of corruption, and raised the possibility of a “military option” to remove President Nicolás Maduro from power. By 2019, during Rubio’s peak influence, the U.S. formally recognized National Assembly President Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate leader.

Nonetheless, this aggressive approach—popular among exiles in South Florida—ultimately became a liability for Trump, who later conceded that he had overestimated the opposition. By bolstering Maduro’s position, it also opened the door for increased involvement from Russia, China, and Iran in Venezuela, deepening a humanitarian crisis that prompted millions to flee, many seeking refuge in the U.S.

Michael Shifter, former president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, speculates that Trump may adopt a more conciliatory stance towards Maduro this time, even with Rubio at the helm of the State Department, possibly continuing the engagement and sanctions relief strategy initiated by the Biden administration.

“Trump might start treating Maduro in a manner similar to other global strongmen, paying less attention to the Cuban-American exile community in Florida,” Shifter suggested.

Trujillo believes that Rubio’s reputation for directness will serve him well in negotiations with both allies and adversaries, even if he must temper his occasionally heated rhetoric.

“He’ll need to adopt a different strategy now, but he’s an exceptional negotiator, and I’m confident he will rise to the occasion,” Trujillo stated.

With Trump appointing another vocal critic of Maduro, Representative Michael Waltz from Florida, as national security adviser, Trujillo noted that Maduro and his authoritarian counterparts in Cuba and Nicaragua should be wary.

Thus far, officials in Venezuela and Cuba, who frequently criticize the U.S. on social media, have largely refrained from commenting on Rubio’s nomination and have not extensively addressed Trump’s election.

“There is an opportunity for negotiation, but it must be pursued in good faith,” Trujillo emphasized. “Failure to do so will lead to repercussions.”

—Goodman reported from Miami. Additional contributions to this report were made by Mark Stevenson and Maria Verza in Mexico City, as well as Isabel DeBre in Buenos Aires.