TThe Trump Administration has begun a process to eliminate probationary staff at the federal agency responsible for weather forecasting and climate research. This move raises significant concerns regarding the nation’s ability to effectively predict extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and tornadoes, which have been occurring with increasing regularity in recent years.

These layoffs are taking place at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which includes the National Weather Service and a vast network of data monitoring systems that provide crucial information to commercial weather organizations at no charge. This decision is part of a broader initiative by the Trump Administration aimed at reducing the federal workforce and curbing government spending, impacting nearly all federal agencies.

Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell from Washington, who serves on the Senate Committee overseeing NOAA, reported that at least 880 employees were let go on Thursday. Those affected were identified as probationary employees—new hires who do not have the same job protections as their more experienced colleagues. They received an email indicating, “[T]he Agency finds that you are not fit for continued employment because your ability, knowledge and/or skills do not fit the Agency’s current needs.”

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The impending firings have sparked outrage among experts and lawmakers alike, who warn that these cuts could severely weaken NOAA’s ability to respond to the growing intensity of weather-related disasters. The National Weather Service, a vital part of NOAA, plays a key role in issuing warnings and forecasts for hazardous storms, including hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires. Given the increasing frequency and severity of weather events linked to climate change, the loss of skilled staff at NOAA is viewed as a significant setback for the nation’s preparedness.

“As we enter a critical period for severe weather and hurricane activity, this situation is troubling,” stated weathercaster Al Roker on X. He pointed out that the agency’s responsibilities extend beyond forecasts, providing essential data for farmers and monitoring oceans and fisheries, which are crucial for the global food supply.

Among those impacted were specialists such as meteorologists, data scientists, and engineers responsible for maintaining NOAA’s satellite and radar systems that provide real-time data to forecasters, according to insiders.

These layoffs appear to align with a larger strategy known as “Project 2025,” a conservative policy framework reflecting the Trump Administration’s vision for government operations. This initiative promotes reducing the roles of agencies like NOAA, raising concerns about budgetary constraints and what it labels as “climate change alarmism.” Project 2025 also suggests limiting the National Weather Service’s functions and proposes charging for weather data, a stark departure from the agency’s historical mission of making life-saving forecasts freely available to all. Trump, who has consistently downplayed climate change, has not yet revealed his plans for NOAA or the Weather Service.

Here’s what you should know regarding the layoffs at NOAA.

What role does NOAA play?

Established in 1970, NOAA is best known for overseeing the National Weather Service and managing some of the world’s most advanced weather prediction and monitoring systems. It tracks temperature variations, tornadoes, and hurricanes. However, NOAA also plays a crucial role in scientific research, supplying vital data for studies on climate change, marine ecosystems, and ocean health.

The agency oversees several key divisions, including the National Marine Fisheries Service, the National Ocean Service, and the Office of Marine and Aviation Operations, along with NOAA Corps. The Office of Marine and Aviation Operations operates a fleet of scientific vessels and aircraft that collect essential data related to climate, weather, fisheries, and underwater mapping.

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NOAA’s stated mission is “to understand and predict changes in climate, weather, ocean, and coasts; to share this knowledge with others; and to conserve and manage coastal and marine ecosystems and resources.” The agency’s research and data are crucial not only for meteorologists but also for industries that rely on accurate forecasting, including agriculture, fisheries, transportation, and energy.

What consequences might the layoffs have on weather and climate research?

These layoffs occur at a time when the U.S. is bracing for what could be a particularly challenging season for extreme weather, including hurricanes, wildfires, and intense storms that have become more frequent in recent years. With a diminished workforce to monitor and predict these events, there are escalating concerns that NOAA’s ability to provide timely and accurate forecasts may be significantly compromised.

“This is incredibly concerning,” meteorologist Jim Cantore remarked on X. “NWS forecasters are essential in enhancing the forecasting process for everyone in the field.”

A reduction in staffing at the National Weather Service, which relies heavily on a skilled workforce, could mean fewer meteorologists available to track storms, deploy weather balloons for atmospheric data, and issue urgent alerts, particularly during peak weather periods. For example, NOAA’s satellite data was crucial in monitoring the devastating wildfires in California last January, aiding on-the-ground decision-making.

Additionally, the agency’s research capabilities may suffer. NOAA is at the forefront of climate science, focusing on ocean health and atmospheric conditions. Layoffs affecting scientists and engineers who handle essential data collection systems, such as satellites and radar, could hinder NOAA’s ability to monitor long-term environmental shifts and conduct innovative research.