This article is a segment of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s political newsletter. Subscribe here for direct updates on stories like this delivered to your inbox.

To understand the current turmoil within both major political parties, consider an unlikely figure: Matt Gaetz, the contentious former House representative and the unsuccessful contender for Donald Trump’s Attorney General position.

Recent reports suggest that the House Ethics Committee is preparing to announce its findings on Gaetz soon. It’s worth noting that Gaetz resigned from Congress in November, just hours ahead of the committee’s scheduled release of an investigation that raised alarming questions regarding his conduct involving minors, financial dealings, substance abuse, and inappropriate conversations. These serious allegations played a critical role in his decision to withdraw from the race for the country’s top law enforcement role.

In reaction to the unfolding situation, Gaetz released a comprehensive statement declaring his innocence against what he labeled as baseless accusations, shifting some focus onto his fellow party members. “My 30s were filled with hard work and hard partying,” he remarked on X. “While I may have indulged more than I should, that’s not a crime. At least I didn’t back spending bills that damage our nation!” Even from a distance, he continues to complicate the process of passing a vital continuing resolution meant to keep the government functioning.

It’s unclear whether the imminent release of the ethics report will change Gaetz’s position in the political arena. Last week, One America News Network announced that he would be taking on a nightly talk show role on its staunchly pro-Trump platform. While it trails behind Fox News and Newsmax in viewership, it carries considerable clout among Trump supporters, including Trump himself, who frequently endorses its conspiracy-focused narratives.

In an intriguing twist, Politico reported that Gaetz is in talks to join a notable personal-injury law firm headed by a prominent Democratic donor known for openly criticizing President Biden’s re-election efforts.

The fact that such diverse organizations see potential in Gaetz is significant, especially since the allegations against him have been well-documented for years.

Much like Trump, Gaetz appears to believe he can simply brush aside the allegations without facing consequences. His resignation from Congress may have temporarily shielded him from scrutiny, but the House ethics committee ultimately decided to take action, perhaps indicating a desire to curtail the culture of impunity surrounding figures like Gaetz.

Despite everything, Gaetz could symbolize the next chapter for the Republican Party as it maneuvers through a post-Trump political landscape.

Furthermore, some speculate that Gaetz possesses political skills that could be strategically utilized by Democrats to their benefit.

Both viewpoints hold potential validity, or perhaps they are overstated. Nevertheless, the serious consideration of these perspectives emphasizes the substantial uncertainty facing both major parties today. This uncertainty is prompting lobbyists along K Street to expand their networks this holiday season, just in case their assumptions prove to be misguided. Consulting firms are also playing it safe by bringing on both traditional GOP figures and MAGA supporters, while maintaining their Democratic ties for the time being.

The Republicans regained influence last month mostly due to Trump and his affluent allies, including Elon Musk. The GOP is on track to control the White House, the Senate, and a slim majority in the House—one that could diminish further if Trump successfully places loyalists in key national security and diplomatic roles. In response to Trump’s influence, House Speaker Mike Johnson remarked, “Enough already,” regarding Trump’s efforts to consolidate power within his fragile caucus.

Democrats are pushing back against claims of a Republican mandate as they head into the next year. However, unlike eight years ago when grassroots activists rallied to form The Resistance, there seems to be no comparable movement emerging now. In fact, the Democratic base appears somewhat demoralized, which may explain why high-profile donor John Morgan, who asserts his law firm is the largest personal-injury practice in the nation, is interested in recruiting Gaetz.

The political environment is so volatile at the moment that virtually anything seems feasible. Trump’s final push for power raises questions about the longevity of his movement post-presidency. The Reagan Revolution diminished after his departure, and there was little enthusiasm within the GOP for a post-presidency role for either Bush 41 or 43. Although Trump has managed to regain influence, it’s uncertain if anyone within the MAGA sphere can replicate his fervor—whether it be Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, Don Jr., or another figure.

On the Democratic side, the situation is equally unclear. Biden’s potential departure and Kamala Harris’s recent challenges leave a significant gap regarding the party’s future direction. Biden seems to have largely withdrawn from the political dialogue in Washington as he and his team count down the days left in his term. Meanwhile, Harris is beginning to lay the groundwork for her next steps, encouraging supporters a couple of weeks ago at her residence in Washington with remarks like, “We do not let anything defeat us” and “We are not having a pity party.” Conversations about the future of the Democratic National Committee and its affiliated organizations are intensifying. However, there’s little enthusiasm surrounding figures such as Barack Obama or the Clintons, and an ex-Democratic House member with contentious views is poised to assume a significant role in the Trump administration. Morgan, the notable Democratic donor interested in hiring Gaetz, asserts that Harris’s time in politics is over.

Can you perceive the chaos as it unfolds?

The very notion that Gaetz—an instigator who challenges the establishment across both parties—is seen as a potential anchor during these tumultuous times is telling. Republicans might regard him as a loyalist who nearly emerged as a leader in a legal battle against Trump’s opponents, while Democrats justifiably view him as a disgraced figure. Both perceptions can coexist, and the public may soon largely see him as an unconvicted criminal, contingent on the findings from the ethics committee.

On December 12, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska voiced concerns from within the GOP’s remaining faction of MAGA supporters, stating, “I don’t think I’ve made any secret of the fact that I’m more of a Ronald Reagan Republican than I am a Trump Republican.” Though she doesn’t support Gaetz, she is contemplating some of Trump’s controversial nominees, such as the “compromised” former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and the accused sexual assaulter Pete Hegseth. Conscious of potential backlash from her right flank, Murkowski embraced her identity as a political survivor and a steady voice against mob mentality, asserting, “You can call me whatever you want to call me.”

What else might people label her? Perhaps a reliable barometer, or even an early warning system. She may be anticipating how loyalty to Trump’s choices—Gaetz leading the charge—will affect their reception within the party. “We’re getting a preview of what it means to be loyal to [the] party, and I don’t think that will benefit us as Republicans,” Murkowski cautioned. “I believe it will energize and galvanize the Democrats.” This is why Democrats are at least intrigued by how someone like Gaetz can adeptly maneuver among multiple factions.

Stay updated on the latest happenings in Washington. Subscribe to the D.C. Brief newsletter.