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As President Joe Biden nears his final days in the White House, he is confronted with the reality that his long-standing commitment to the Democratic Party may hold little significance outside the Oval Office.
In these closing moments, Biden likely feels a mix of frustration and a sense of betrayal, as his job approval ratings have plummeted to lows reminiscent of former President Jimmy Carter. Last week, he paid tribute to Carter, another one-term Democrat who found himself at odds with a disillusioned public that ultimately sought a change in leadership. Compounding his difficulties, catastrophic wildfires in California forced him to cancel plans for a farewell trip to Italy and the Vatican. On Monday evening, he is scheduled to give the first of two speeches intended to bolster his legacy, though they may not rekindle the excitement among his party’s supporters as he transitions into a role as an elder statesman.
The numbers tell a compelling story: only 37% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance, a slight uptick above Carter’s exit rating by about five points, yet a stark decline from the 53% approval he enjoyed at the outset of his presidency, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling. An Associated Press-NORC poll places Biden’s approval at 39%, with a mere 72% of Democrats backing him, down from an overwhelming 97% at the beginning of his term. Moreover, over half of Democrats—55%—reported feeling no better off now than they did before Biden took office, according to the same survey. Essentially, Biden is not viewed as a leader capable of steering a party that feels increasingly marginalized within the halls of power, mirroring his own experiences.
Since the midterm elections, a subdued yet pervasive discontent has surfaced regarding Biden’s decisions, particularly following the Democrats’ unexpectedly strong showing in the 2022 midterms, which briefly fueled hopes of retaining the White House in 2024. Biden’s aspiration for another four years now seems misguided, although he remains steadfast. In a recent interview, he confidently claimed he would have triumphed over Trump in a potential rematch.
“It’s presumptuous to say that, but I think yes,” Biden stated in an exclusive exit interview with USA Today.
His unwavering optimism appears to have diminished the already scarce goodwill he had among Democrats. His choice to pardon his son, Hunter Biden, complicated the party’s narrative around equal justice, especially in light of Trump’s ongoing legal challenges. Additionally, his decision to bestow the nation’s highest civilian honors upon figures like George Soros and Hillary Clinton drew significant criticism from conservative factions, while a bipartisan initiative to honor the late Governor George Romney received mixed responses, even as he garnered more positive feedback for his efforts to reform federal death row policies.
As Monday approaches, Biden is set to deliver his first farewell address at the State Department, centering on what his administration considers its foreign policy successes. However, critics from within the Democratic Party are quick to highlight the setbacks, including the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the persistent Russian invasion of Ukraine, and an assertive China. Given Biden’s extensive experience as a senior Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and his roles as Vice President and President, this legacy-focused speech seems appropriate, particularly for a nation that may not be deeply involved in international affairs.
Following this, he plans to deliver a more conventional farewell from the Oval Office on Wednesday before returning to Delaware next Monday.
Dissatisfaction with outgoing Presidents is certainly not a new occurrence. Even among Democrats, there was a palpable sense of weariness by the time Obama delivered his farewell address in Chicago, the city where he launched his political career. George W. Bush’s final months were overshadowed by numerous crises, including a financial crisis and an auto industry bailout, prompting him to prioritize legacy-building trips abroad over attending the GOP convention. Bill Clinton left the White House as a popular figure, yet his Vice President, Al Gore, strategically distanced himself as he sought to maintain Democratic control in the White House.
To be candid, Biden’s situation appears more precarious than that of his predecessors, according to polling data. Public sentiment has soured against him, with some Democrats placing the blame on him for potentially paving the way for another Trump administration. Even his staunch supporters seem reluctant to engage with his legacy. While White House aides argue convincingly that Biden’s legislative achievements rival those of previous Presidents, a legacy is often shaped by public perception rather than empirical evidence. This has been evident in past elections, as illustrated by Trump’s third campaign, Obama’s effective messaging during the 2008 crisis, and Bush’s pledges of decency in the wake of Clinton’s scandals.
However, Biden shouldn’t lose heart: history shows that former Presidents often witness a shift in their reputations after leaving office.
In this context—more than any polished speech or favorable narrative crafted by his writing team—Biden should take comfort. While current polling reflects an all-time low, there remains significant potential for a resurgence, which often happens relatively quickly. Gallup regularly conducts follow-up polls with former Presidents, and initial evaluations frequently indicate notable improvements: Ronald Reagan saw a 15-point increase, Carter experienced a 12-point rise, and George H.W. Bush enjoyed a 10-point bump in approval ratings. Perhaps, after some time away from the political limelight, the nation may extend Biden a similar opportunity for redemption—though it won’t alter the reality that he may never attain the position he has aspired to for most of his career. Snap judgments—similar to elections—can sometimes overlook the broader narrative.
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