Five years have passed since the World Health Organization officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic, and the effects of that momentous decision are still being felt today. Life as we knew it changed drastically, with some changes proving to be permanent. Beyond the direct impact of the virus, which led to not only deaths but also long-term effects like disability from long COVID, the public health emergency has had a lasting impact on overall wellbeing. A recent study conducted by researchers at Imperial College London has brought to light the numbers behind these impacts.

The study focused on adults aged 35 and over in 18 European countries, totaling 289 million individuals, to calculate the lost life years due to the pandemic. The researchers aimed to determine how many additional years these people could have lived if the pandemic had not occurred. They analyzed data tracking the progression from a disease-free state through various health conditions, including cardiovascular illness, cognitive impairment, dementia, disability, and ultimately death. By measuring both disabled and disability-free life years lost between 2020 and 2022 using advanced computer modeling and statistical analysis, the study revealed that a total of 16.8 million years of life were lost during this period.

One key finding was that more than half of these lost years were projected to be lived without disability, even among individuals over 80 years old. The study highlighted the significant impact of the pandemic on the older population, emphasizing the underestimation of its effects. Breaking down the data by country showed significant variability, with Estonia experiencing the highest person-years of life lost per 1,000 population and Sweden the lowest. The study also identified a correlation between gross domestic product and the impact of the pandemic, with lower-income countries experiencing higher life years lost.

Of the total years lost, 3.6-5.3 million were attributed to non-COVID-related mortality and the indirect impacts of the pandemic. These indirect effects continued to rise even after widespread vaccine distribution in 2021, despite a decline in direct COVID-19 deaths. As we reflect on the fifth anniversary of the pandemic declaration, it is clear that the global response to COVID-19 has been complex. From debates over restrictions and vaccine development to ongoing challenges with vaccine access and treatment protocols, the journey has been marked by scientific advancements and societal debates.

While vaccines have been crucial in curbing the acute health crisis, there are still ongoing efforts to understand the long-term effects of the virus and improve public health preparedness for future pandemics. Dr. Sara Ahmadi-Abhari, the lead author of the study, stressed the importance of recognizing the broader consequences of the pandemic beyond COVID-19 deaths. The findings underscore the need for comprehensive pandemic preparedness programs to address both immediate and long-term public health challenges. Published in PLOS Medicine, the study serves as a reminder of the enduring impact of COVID-19 and the importance of learning from this experience as we navigate future global health crises.