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The past week has seen significant policy shifts emanating from the White House, leaving many questioning the reliability of official communications. A notable example was President Donald Trump’s inconsistent approach to tariffs with Canada and Mexico, which swung from being firmly established to seemingly irrelevant and then back to a vague suggestion. Amid this turbulence, Trump expressed admiration for Elon Musk’s ability to let go of thousands of government employees during a congressional address that was rife with inaccuracies. Just 48 hours later, after a hastily convened Cabinet meeting, new restrictions on Musk’s powers were announced.
Yet, amidst such bewildering happenings in Washington, one remark from Trump stands out for its sheer absurdity. “I’m not even looking at the market,” he declared on Thursday, a statement that even his loyal supporters found difficult to defend.
A senior aide within Republican ranks perhaps encapsulated the collective sentiment in D.C. best when he responded to me with an eye-roll emoji through an encrypted messaging platform. Another Republican, an ex-member of Trump’s administration, suggested we might have slipped into an alternate reality: “We are on Earth 10,000.”
This is a President who, during his first term, often cited Wall Street as an indicator of both the economy’s health and his effectiveness as a leader. “That significant Stock Market increase is my achievement,” Trump asserted in what was then a tweet back in 2019. “If Hillary had won – we’d be facing a major crash!”
Therefore, despite Trump’s assertions on Thursday regarding the implications of his bewildering tariff policies, this administration is fundamentally tied to market performance—its fortunes rise and fall in tandem with it, and currently, that indicator is on a downward trajectory.
Friday’s job report was expected to provide a boost to Wall Street following the rapid decline in market gains since Trump’s election in November. Since reaching its peak on December 16, the tech-heavy Nasdaq has dropped 10%, a high that Trump once celebrated. The broader Dow has declined over 5%. A frantic sell-off among investors is positioning the markets for their worst week since September. As one political advisor to the financial services sector expressed in frustration at a credit union executives’ conference: “We’re exhausted, and it’s still Q1.”
The report from Friday presented mixed messages. The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs, yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. While these figures slightly fell short of expectations, the more pressing concern lies in what remains unaccounted for: the wave of mass layoffs and federal downsizing that has yet to be reflected in the statistics. Furthermore, the report lacked the strength needed to counterbalance the ongoing tariff turmoil, which is undermining confidence in current investments and their potential returns.
It might lack sophistication, but it certainly holds truth: the so-called “Trump Bump” that followed his return to office has now morphed into a “Trump Slump.” A staggering $3 trillion in wealth accumulated since Election Day evaporated in just one week.
The duration of this slump remains uncertain. Friday’s job report merely adds another layer to the narrative of Trump’s economic legacy during his second term. Whether it constitutes a dismal basement or a towering skyscraper is still up for debate.
However, investors are becoming increasingly fatigued by the unpredictability that surrounds Trump’s administration, where no one seems to have a firm grasp on policy announcements. Billionaire Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick claimed on a business broadcast that the tariffs were here to stay, only to face embarrassment days later as Trump indicated they would be postponed. Then, on Friday, Trump reinstated the tariffs and threatened a staggering 250% duty on Canadian dairy and timber.
Much of this market volatility stems from Trump’s unpredictable behavior and the sway of figures like Musk. Consequently, many contractors find themselves repeatedly checking Musk’s DOGE account, anxiously awaiting payment for work that has already been approved and completed.
Importantly, while Washington may slowly be adjusting to the erratic nature of many decisions emanating from the White House, Wall Street is decidedly not in sync. The situation has become a crisis unfolding by the hour; decisions impacting the market can shift with a phone call, only to be reversed shortly thereafter. Moreover, we have yet to witness an official jobs report that accurately reflects the ongoing cuts across federal agencies, or how potential declines in services, such as food safety inspections or weather forecasting, could send ripples through both U.S. and global economies. We find ourselves on this rollercoaster, observing the departure of those who ensure its smooth operation.
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