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While President Joe Biden displayed a composed front, insiders suggested that he would ultimately intervene to stop the federal legal proceedings concerning his son.

The surprising announcement on Sunday of a broad pardon for Hunter Biden sparked intense debate in Washington. Conversations ignited around what this means for the President’s legacy, the potential impact on the already fragile credibility of the Justice Department, and whether President-elect Donald Trump, himself a convicted felon, would see the pardon as final. The atmosphere was charged, urgent, and—inevitably—controversial.

However, analyzing Biden’s choice to wield a largely unchecked constitutional power sheds light on his reasoning. Indeed, Biden did an about-face on his previous commitment not to utilize his power to shield his son. This action contradicts longstanding Democratic critiques of Trump’s administration, which claimed that no person is above the law, irrespective of their ties to the presidency. Furthermore, this decision could overshadow Biden’s closing days in office, diverting focus from his attempts to solidify a legacy after a long political career.

Nonetheless, these criticisms fail to account for a crucial reality: Joe Biden faced a more intricate dilemma than simply deciding whether to spare his only living son from serving time. Many will view this as a self-serving choice made by a protective father. Yet, it could also be one of the most calculated decisions Biden has made this year—outshining even his startling declaration in July that he would not run for reelection as the Democratic nominee.

Here are six factors that clarify Biden’s decision to issue a concise, roughly 200-word pardon:

Trump has made his intentions clear regarding the Bidens.

For years, Hunter Biden’s associations with a Ukrainian energy firm have fascinated conservative circles, many of whom suspect the payments to him were a facade for illicit financial dealings involving Joe Biden. (Much of the GOP’s case against the Bidens has been debunked, and their impeachment attempts against Joe Biden have stalled.) With Trump likely to regain control of the Justice Department and the FBI—possibly under a loyalist who supports aggressive tactics against adversaries—there were fears that the President-elect would prioritize investigating Hunter Biden, even if he were serving a prison sentence. Biden’s sweeping pardon effectively eliminated any such pursuit, as federal charges could no longer be pursued against Hunter.

Hunter Biden’s legal situation was treated distinctly.

This fact is undeniable. Experts generally concur that if anyone else faced similar charges, they would likely receive a straightforward plea deal—one that was previously suggested but rejected by a judge appointed by Trump due to its unusual breadth. The prosecution became even more unconventional once the Trump-nominated U.S. Attorney for Delaware was appointed as special counsel in Hunter Biden’s case. Under this designation, David Weiss secured convictions on three federal felony counts for illegal firearm purchases and nine guilty pleas for tax-related charges. Hunter was facing sentencing for the firearm conviction on December 12, followed by a tax evasion sentencing on December 16. If he received the maximum penalties—considered unlikely—he could have faced up to 42 years behind bars.

Inaction was not a viable option.

Indeed, Biden’s pivot came without any apology. He had been traveling the world—literally—asserting that the justice system was functioning fairly for both his son and Trump. He understood that he would encounter backlash from some of the very individuals whose approval he had sought for years. However, voters had already weighed in on Biden’s strict adherence to protocol when they chose to bring Trump back into the fold. In fact, Trump had hinted at granting mass pardons to individuals involved in the January 6, 2021, insurrection. Voters appeared to find that concept appealing—or at least not disqualifying—and opted to restore Trump to power.

If Trump believes he can easily overturn legal repercussions without facing repercussions, perhaps Biden feels justified in assuming he has similar leeway. After all, during Trump’s first term, he granted clemency to individuals like former Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, former NYPD Commissioner Bernie Kerik, and “junk-bond king” Michael Milken. Trump also used his pardoning authority to absolve five aides, three military personnel accused of war crimes, seven disgraced former Congress members—all Republicans—and ten healthcare providers involved in a significant Medicare fraud case.

Given this context, what if Hunter Biden’s impending sentencing resulted in years of imprisonment for offenses that experts contend are rarely prosecuted? How would the public have reacted if Joe Biden, in the twilight of his presidency, had declined to use his pardoning authority to assist his own son?

Family is central to the Biden identity.

Throughout his extensive political career, Joe Biden has long advocated for the separation of the judicial system from politics. However, this principle collided with another: the importance of family above all else. The President’s grief over the loss of his son Beau looms over many of the Biden family’s decisions in the past decade and likely weighed on his mind as he contemplated the possibility of his grandchildren spending even more time without their father. Although politically fraught, this decision was not entirely unexpected. Recall when an Iowan confronted Biden about Hunter’s involvement in Ukraine back in December 2019; he labeled the individual “a damned liar” and challenged him to a push-up contest. Biden subsequently vowed to uphold his family’s integrity if elected.

Moreover, Hunter Biden has been open about his battles with addiction and has shown signs of turning his life around after making regrettable choices. A lengthy prison sentence would likely offer him little wisdom he hasn’t already learned. This rationale may have influenced Joe Biden’s decision to grant the pardon.

Biden acted without significant constraints.

The power to pardon is absolute and exclusively held by the President. There is no requirement for Congressional approval, nor does anyone in his administration have the authority to impede him. That’s why, when Biden stated on June 13, “I will not pardon him,” some were skeptical. A pardon was always a possibility, regardless of his aides’ insistence for him to steer clear of involvement concerning Hunter. How else can one explain Biden’s invitation to Hunter to a state dinner shortly after the younger Biden attempted to negotiate a deal with federal prosecutors, with the Attorney General present at the same event? Despite Hunter’s past issues, he remains influential within his father’s inner circle as the oldest living child in a once-prominent political family.

This moment will be difficult, but perhaps only temporarily.

The White House released the news late Sunday, just as Biden prepared for his final international trip as President. This timing allows him to stay out of Washington until Thursday, with no formal press conference planned, a strategy reminiscent of a recent trip to South America that featured limited media engagement. This creates ample space for the narrative surrounding Biden’s apparent breach of his prior commitment not to grant a pardon to develop. Onboard Air Force One, the White House’s chief spokesperson reaffirmed the decision, and on Monday, during a welcome event for National Guard members viewing holiday decorations, First Lady Jill Biden faced questions about the pardon. “Of course I support the pardon for my son,” Dr. Biden stated in the State Dining Room of the White House.

Furthermore, Washington is currently navigating its typical end-of-year budgetary pressures; this year, Congress has until December 20 to negotiate spending, with significant disagreements on how far to extend funding into Trump’s second term. Essentially, the pardon is unlikely to remain a primary concern for most Americans, and Trump will likely find ways to redirect public focus as Biden’s team races against the clock.

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